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Analysts Raise Brazil’s 2009, 2010 GDP Views – Survey

September 21st, 2009

Brazilian economists and financial market analysts have revised upward their forecasts for 2009 and 2010 gross domestic product, according to the central bank’s weekly market survey published Monday.

Analysts expect Brazil’s 2009 GDP growth of 0%, compared with a forecast contraction of 0.15% in the previous week’s survey. In addition, their forecast for 2010 GDP growth was increased to 4.20% from 4%.

Brazil’s GDP expanded 1.9% in the second quarter compared with the first quarter of this year and it decreased 1.2% in the second quarter versus the second quarter of 2008, according to the Brazilian Census Bureau, or IBGE.

The central bank’s weekly survey tracks the opinions of 100 analysts and economists from banks and brokerages, reporting the average of their expectations.

Economists surveyed increased slightly their 2009 IPCA inflation forecast to 4.31% from 4.30%. The forecast is below the central bank’s inflation forecast of 4.50% for the year.

The rolling 12-month IPCA inflation rate through August was 4.36%, according to the IBGE. The respondents’ average estimate for 2010’s IPCA inflation was reduced to 4.30% from 4.35%.

The analysts’ average estimate for the 2009 year-end benchmark Selic interest rate was kept at 8.75%, which is the Selic’s current level. For 2010, analysts maintained their Selic rate view at 9.25%.

The estimate for the 2009 year-end debt-to-GDP ratio was increased to 43.10% from 42.75%.

Respondents kept their forecast for the 2009 foreign-trade surplus at $25 billion. Analysts expect a 2009 year-end current account deficit of $15 billion.

Brazil’s real is expected to end this year at 1.80 reals to the U.S. dollar. On Friday, the real closed at BRL1.8058.

By Rogerio Jelmayer, Dow Jones Newswires


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